AI and the Future of Labor: The Potential to Rebuild the Middle Class and the Threat of Devalued Expertise

In a recent Planet Money podcast, they explore the potential implications of AI, specifically ChatGPT, on the labor market and economic inequality

In a recent Planet Money podcast, they explore the potential implications of AI, specifically ChatGPT, on the labor market and economic inequality.

The hosts examine two recent studies showing that the use of ChatGPT in a business setting has led to increased productivity, especially among less skilled workers, narrowing the productivity gap. This contrasts with the typical pattern of technology advancements, which often increases inequality by benefiting higher-skilled workers disproportionately.

Rosalsky then interviews MIT professor David Autor, a prominent labor economist, about the potential of AI in leveling the playing field. Autor compares the impact of the Industrial Revolution and the computer era on the labor market. He explains how both eras initially displaced certain jobs but then eventually created new types of work. He suggests that we might be entering a new technological era where AI could democratize access to ‘elite expertise,’ potentially reducing economic inequality.

He envisions a scenario where AI can empower middle-skill workers, similar to how nurse practitioners leverage technology to perform tasks previously exclusive to doctors. However, Autor insists these are potential outcomes and not certainties.

Autor discusses the potential impacts of AI on the labor market. He suggests that AI could actually help to reinstate the middle class by making jobs that are currently held by the upper class accessible to middle-class workers. AI could assist in tasks such as writing, research, and creating complicated legal documents, thus enhancing productivity and improving wealth.

However, Autor also acknowledges that there might be disruptions, particularly for high-income individuals, as their roles may be devalued if AI allows more people to perform their jobs. But he views this as a potential gain in productivity if AI helps to accomplish tasks faster and more efficiently.

The discussion also covers concerns about the potential misuse of AI in areas like misinformation, control of critical systems, surveillance, and the creation of dangerous weapons. Autor is optimistic about the potential for AI to benefit the labor market, but also expresses worry about the possibility of an increase in inequality. He notes the threat of a future where only a few “superexperts” are needed, with the rest of the work done by machines, potentially leading to a concentration of wealth among the owners of these technologies.

Autor worries about the devaluation of expertise. He provides the example of London cabbies, whose knowledge of the city’s streets was devalued by navigation apps like Waze. He fears a similar effect on the broader labor force where AI could make human expertise less relevant.

Despite these concerns, Autor believes that humans have certain advantages over AI, such as adaptability, common sense, and the ability to relate to others. He feels that AI brings up a range of possibilities, some promising and some concerning, but he doesn’t see the labor market as the scariest part of AI at the current time. Instead, he is more worried about AI’s potential misuse in other areas.

https://www.npr.org/2023/05/16/1176516094/artificial-intelligence-david-autor-chatgpt-labor