The theme: AI capability got cheaper this week, and permission to power it got more expensive.
The votes. 40 of 41 local data center ballot measures favored limits. Governors-elect in Texas, Ohio and Georgia promised pauses. Texas’s outgoing Republican governor had already frozen permits, so this isn’t a one-party story.
The market. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4% on Thursday, its worst day since March 2020. The election was one stated cause, but a weak Qualcomm forecast and pre-earnings nerves were in there too. Wells Fargo’s own math suggests the market priced more than Texas alone.
The marks. OpenAI got its first $11B at $1.25T, below its $1.4T ask. Anthropic’s unpriced IPO is reportedly being talked about 35 to 45% below early October. Meanwhile defense, physical AI and revenue-stage software kept raising.
The takeoff question. METR found AI speeding up AI research at Anthropic by about 1.9x, with a wide range. It makes no takeoff forecast, and I put low confidence on a fast takeoff within one to two years.
For founders, LPs and other investors: the questions to ask now, and the dates to watch (Cerebras 11/12, Nvidia 11/17, Texas grid audit in December).
Full article: https://teamignite.vc/blog/last-week-ignite-forty-of-forty-one