The $26 Trillion Robot Question

My Take on ARK's Big Ideas 2026

ARK Invest just published their Big Ideas 2026 report, and buried inside 200 pages of charts and projections is a claim so audacious it almost slides past you: humanoid robots represent a $26 trillion revenue opportunity, and we might hit human-level task performance by 2028.

Two pages later, the same report admits that humanoids are exponentially more complex than self-driving cars.

This is the entire venture capital problem in miniature. The technology is real. The timelines are fiction. And in between those two facts lies the difference between making money and explaining to your LPs why you’re still waiting for product-market fit in year seven.