The Six-Month Curse

Why Most Tech IPO Winners Become Losers

Here’s a question nobody asks at the IPO afterparty: if you’re an early employee holding stock worth millions on paper, should you actually sell the moment you’re allowed to?

The conventional wisdom says hold. The company just validated itself publicly. The stock doubled on day one. Surely this is just the beginning, right?

Wrong. Spectacularly, statistically, historically wrong.

Let me tell you what actually happens to most tech stocks in the six months after they go public. It’s not pretty, but it’s predictable. And if you’re sitting on pre-IPO shares, or thinking about buying into the next hot offering, these numbers might save you from a very expensive mistake.

The Pattern Nobody Talks About

Picture this: You’re employee number 47 at a promising startup. Years of ramen and 80-hour weeks finally pay off when the company goes public. On IPO day, the stock opens at $30 but was priced at $20 for institutional investors. By market close, it’s at $35. You do the math on your shares and realize you’re suddenly worth $2 million.